A mere two months ago when Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager scolded him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, with the team went six without a win, doubts remained whether his performances were a symptom or the reason for the side's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, though, the sideline response was far more favourable. When Rogers curled home his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The team continued to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their opening six fixtures, now sit only three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
It remains a particularly tough question to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, while the wins have accumulated.
As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team registered an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a team that have put together ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and wait for their talisman to bail them out with two crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened versus Manchester United.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, curled just inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents managed more shots and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival Villa will encounter in the near future. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is another reality whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
- The winger might become the performer he resembled in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the possibility for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought the midfielder now would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. As Rogers stood in front of the home supporters after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
